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Recent extreme rainfall is likely just the start of what will become a rough winter across the United States.
Watch the southern tier turn green from late November into December, signaling the arrival of El Niño’s storm train.
This is remarkable. Parts of Florida’s Space Coast have received up to *half a year’s worth of rain* in the last day and a half — as much as 27 inches in 36 hours, about 50% of an average year’s rainfall (radar estimate through 5 p.m. ET Monday).
The most extreme totals occurred
The Pacific jet is roaring now, and it’s forecast to grow even stronger 🚀
Powered by El Niño, the southern branch of the jet stream could approach record strength from late November into December, steering a relentless parade of storms across the United States.
An atmospheric river has delivered up to *five Novembers' worth* of rain in a day to areas in the Southwest!
That includes parts of California and Nevada as well as Arizona, where serious flooding is ongoing, with historic river crests forecast in southern Colorado Sunday night.
If you live in a blue area on this map, you have elevated chances for a snowier-than-average winter ☃️
Consistent with El Niño, odds favor above-average snowfall across the U.S. Intermountain West, Plains and Appalachians, according to this new CanSIPS data.
A stratospheric polar vortex disruption isn't forecast to directly affect weather patterns through at least mid-November.
By late month and early December in the U.S., signs are that El Niño's active storm train will be rolling — and some high-latitude blocking may then emerge.
Rain is on the horizon for the Hudson Desert! 🌵
It hasn’t rained since October 16 in the #HudsonValley.
By the time this dry streak likely finally comes to an end on Thursday, it will have reached an exceptionally rare 19 consecutive days.
The season’s first El Niño-fueled
This record El Niño is forecast to peak at +4.1°C in December according to the new CanSIPS run, before fading to neutral or a relative La Niña by July.
The tropical Atlantic looks much warmer than average heading into the next Atlantic hurricane season.
This record El Niño will probably continue to intensify for around two more months.
Ocean temperatures are now nearly 93°F (33.7°C) beneath the surface in the eastern Pacific, with anomalies as large as 19.8°F (11.0°C) — several degrees more anomalous than 1997 was at this time.
The season's first atmospheric river, stretching 2,700 miles from the Pacific, will flow into the Southwest and Four Corners on Sunday.
It will bring more serious flooding concerns to Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico, which have already been hit hard by recent storms.